If FanDuel cancels this promotion mid-season, it will reduce the sample size and increase your variance and risk.īefore diving into the different approaches, here are some factors to consider:.

Due to possible losses and the number of bets required, a larger bankroll is needed.

To get the large sample set required for +EV, you should commit to doing every game from this promo every Tuesday.

Subject to variance (potentially losing money), especially in the near term.

Hedging requires placing player prop bets on the hedge book, which are more likely to result in limits than main lines.

House Rule differences when hedging player props may increase the risk of bets not being graded the same.

Does not require betting on all games every Tuesday.

Here is a high-level comparison of the two approaches as they apply to this promotion. What is explained here is meant to be a useful introduction. +EV could get an entire series of guides as its own topic.

Note: The +EV concepts outlined in this guide are very simplified. Flipping a coin a million times will land very close to 50% heads, 50% tails. This pattern of getting closer to the average continues as the sample size increases. If you flipped a coin 100 times, chances are you will get much closer to 50% heads and 50% tails. That is because there is variance, in this case, 70% heads and 30% tails is 20 percentage points away from the average. However, flipping a coin ten times does not mean it will be exactly 5 heads and 5 tails.

When you flip a coin, it has a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. If you’re not familiar with variance, think of flipping a coin. An important thing to understand for +EV betting is that because you don’t hedge, it is subject to risk and variance. +EV can get complicated, but in its simplest form, it’s betting in a way where you expect to profit over an extended period.

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